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Who wins: Is Ferguson rolling the dice against Gaethje?

07 Apr 2020

With lightweight contendership out of the picture, Tony Ferguson has agreed to fight Justin Gaethje. At the top of the UFC lightweight division Khabib Nurmagodemov (C), Tony Ferguson, Conor McGregor, and Justin Gaethje are in a four way lock up.

It's interesting that as one of the most overdue fights since ever, Khabib's Coronavirus situation leaving him unnable to leave Russia has made way for what might be the most exciting fight of these four.

Don't get me wrong, Nurmagomedov Vs. Ferguson is an exciting fight, however, Ferguson fighting Gaethje is just fireworks.

Both of these guys are known for high volume output, and boh have strong wrestling credentials. I just think the size is going to make the difference up in this fight, and massively.

Justin Gaethje's fought big guys before, getting a big knockdown on James Vick last year, and wading into wars (a little more conservatively in his recent fights), exchanging happily, and scoring big knockdowns with his hands.

He's quickly made a name for himself, but despite his toughness, I think Tony Ferguson's just got too much in the bag. The way he transitions from his punches to his elbows, his flow, when it gets going, might just overwhelm Gaethje who might seek to employ his low kicks that might break up Tony's momentum.

Whenever Ferguson takes a fight that isn't a title contention bout, it seems like another opportunity for him so get dangerously close to the action being stopped. Referee's that know the game, know their fighters - they educate themselves to allow opportunities for fighters to take back the fight. Tony's gotten himself out of trouble more than enough times (usually down to his 10th Planet BJJ techniques).

That's going to be significant for Justin Gaethje, and is less so about the referee and more to the point of - we've seen Tony Ferguson hurt on multiple occassions. Whilst his skillset and variation might seem more fundamental compared to Ferguson, El Cucuy will scrap, and that's where Gaethje might catch him, reach disadvantage withstanding.

With the fight confirmed, to my mind, again, this holds the highest threshold for action within the top 4 in the Ultimate Fighting Championship Lightweight division.

Both fighters push the action, and whilst I give Ferguson the edge, Justin Gaethje will not give him an easy fight.

Ferguson gives Gaethje a chance for the Interim belt - Nurmagomedov optimistic of a Tony win as he targets the match up for July or August.